The most hot coal hit again, and the four major po

2022-09-21
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"Coal crazy" hit again, and the four major power enterprises wrote a letter or intended to promote the increase of electricity prices

as the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of power coal continues to be tight, and the inventory of power coal in many power plants is in a hurry, "coal crazy" hit again, which is a difficult year for power enterprises. Power enterprises fell into large-scale losses, while the profitability of coal enterprises hit a new high, and the contradiction between coal and electricity intensified again

in fact, the contradiction between coal and electricity has never disappeared. Either power enterprises or coal enterprises suffer losses. The relationship between the two sides has always been a "seesaw"

in order to alleviate the contradiction between coal and electricity, relevant departments introduced the coal and electricity linkage mechanism in 2015. Once the coal price is too high, the plight of power enterprises will be alleviated by raising the electricity price

the industry believes that the current coal price has met the conditions of coal electricity linkage, and there is a high probability of starting coal electricity linkage this year, and the four major power enterprises may jointly submit a letter to promote the price increase

call at any time

"coal crazy" attacks again

since January, the price of thermal coal in ports and pitheads has risen all the way, among which the price of port coal has risen from 705 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 750 yuan/ton at present. Similarly, the price of pithead coal is not willing to lag behind, and the upward trend is obvious

at the same time, according to the securities, due to the impact of cooling and Blizzard weather, many power enterprises' power generation hit a new high, which also caused many power enterprises' inventories to reach the warning line, which can only be maintained for a day or two

therefore, the four major power enterprises jointly submitted a letter to the national development and Reform Commission, hoping to increase coal supply and control coal prices

Zhongyu information analyst Wang Qiuli told securities that the nationwide snowfall in early January made it difficult for many power plants to replenish storage, and the snowfall weather also had a great impact on road coal transportation. At the same time, the railway wagon plan was tight, the source of goods transported by train to the port was mostly determined, the spot supply at the port was tight, and traders' attitude of being reluctant to sell goods was significantly enhanced. The snowfall blocked the export of pithead coal enterprises and the replenishment of storage in consumer land. Some users turned to the port to purchase, driving the port coal price up

in fact, in order to cope with the tight inventory of power coal in some power plants in the peak winter, around December 20, 2017, the relevant departments orally notified that a series of restrictive measures on imported coal had been temporarily cancelled

according to the latest customs data, the coal import volume in December last year was 22.74 million tons, an increase of only 690000 tons month on month and a decrease of 4.1 million tons year on year. There was no obvious increase and improvement. There was still a gap in imported coal, which also helped to raise domestic coal prices

at present, the market price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Bohai Rim port has risen to about 740 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 130 yuan/ton over the level at the beginning of 2017. The high coal price reflects the tension of the market

inspect the changes of metallographic microstructure of the friction surface before and after wear

at the same time, securities also learned that from February 3, all coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province will be shut down, all mines will focus on ensuring safety, and small and medium-sized coal mines will also be shut down in succession

therefore, on the whole, this round of coal price rise is mainly because the supply can not keep up with the Spring Festival holiday, which may be difficult to ease in the short term

it should be mentioned that in order to increase coal supply, Shanxi Provincial Department of coal industry recently issued the notice on reasonably arranging the shutdown and overhaul of coal mines during the Spring Festival to stabilize coal production and supply (hereinafter referred to as the notice)

the notice said that in order to ensure coal supply, Shanxi Province requires coal management departments at all levels and coal mining enterprises to deploy in advance, make overall arrangements for production and safety work during the Spring Festival, reasonably arrange the shutdown and maintenance of coal mines, guide coal mining enterprises to do a good job in coal production and stable supply during the Spring Festival, especially the key state-owned coal group companies and local state-owned coal mines to play a leading role, Organize production in a scientific and orderly manner and spare no effort to ensure coal supply

in this regard, Wang Qiuli pointed out that on the whole, coal prices have pushed up Baader bank analysts said that the rise was caused by higher demand for power plants, blocked transportation roads and insufficient replenishment of imported coal. The Spring Festival holiday is the low point of industrial power consumption, and the daily consumption of power plants will be significantly reduced, so this round of rising coal prices may usher in an inflection point near the Spring Festival

the joint submission is intended to promote the increase of electricity prices

it is worth noting that since the price of power coal in 2017 was at a high level throughout the year, thermal power enterprises continued to increase costs and suffered large-scale losses

the high coal price makes the contradiction between coal and electricity increasingly prominent. On the one hand, there are coal enterprises that make a lot of money, and on the other hand, there are power enterprises with increasingly severe business forms. Under this background, the expectation of coal power linkage is constantly strengthened

in order to alleviate the difficulties of power enterprises, in July last year, the electricity price on the benchmark of coal-fired units has been disguised. 3. Maintenance of the control system of torque testing machine for auto parts: regularly check whether the connecting lines on the rear panel of the controller are in good contact and raise the price

but then the coal price continued to rise, experienced the "coal crazy" in September last year, and set a new high this year. After the strengthening of regulation and control by the national development and Reform Commission, coal prices have only experienced a short downturn, and continue to rise after entering the heating season

according to the research report released by CICC, the possibility of short-term improvement of high coal prices is small, and the ignition price difference of power enterprises continues to decline. At present, it is speculated that at the level of 6.5 points per kilowatt hour, some power plants have broken capital chains. Due to the tightening of coal supply and the increase of railway freight rate by Harbin Railway Bureau, the price of thermal coal is still rising. Based on the current tense relationship between supply and demand and the intensification of problems during the Spring Festival, the bank believes that the possibility of easing coal prices in the short term is small

in addition, considering that other cash operating costs of power enterprises are about 1 gross per kilowatt hour, the profit outlook is grim. According to the bank's communication with power enterprises, some thermal power plants in Northeast and Northwest China have broken their capital chains, and it is believed that the joint submission of the four power enterprises may be intended to promote the increase of electricity prices

a person from a power enterprise told securities that according to the provisions of coal electricity linkage, the conditions for the increase in electricity prices have been met, and power enterprises also hope to take a breather by raising electricity prices

analysts of securities companies told securities that the probability of starting coal electricity linkage this year is high, and the losses caused by high costs of power enterprises need to be adjusted by raising electricity prices, so as to alleviate the contradiction between coal and electricity

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